Weather Delays Drive China Garlic Prices Higher

Persistent rainfall in key Chinese garlic-producing regions, including Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Hebei, has significantly delayed the planting of the new season's crop. This disruption is fueling a notable price surge in the market, with warehouse prices showing strong momentum and approaching the 1.5 yuan per kg mark (3 yuan per 500g).

Taking Jinxiang's mid-grade mixed garlic as a benchmark, prices have climbed steadily after a period of weakness. The trend began shifting in mid-September when continuous rains hampered planting, altering market sentiment. A significant price rally started around September 25th. While the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays temporarily paused the uptrend, the market resumed its vigorous ascent immediately afterward. As of October 15th, prices had reached approximately 1.45 yuan per kg (2.90 yuan per 500g).

The weather's impact is also acutely felt in the seed garlic market. After a period of slow sales and low prices, seed garlic costs have jumped dramatically. Prices for whole bulb seed garlic have increased by 0.20-0.30 yuan per kg, while separated clove prices have surged by 0.50-0.60 yuan per kg.

The core of the issue lies in the planting delays. Typically, about 70-80% of garlic planting is complete after the National Day holiday. This year, however, extended rainy weather from late September through early October left fields waterlogged, preventing both the harvest of previous crops and the sowing of garlic. While planting has progressed in some well-drained areas and early-starting regions, overall progress lags. Current estimates suggest only about 30% completion in main producing areas and around 60% in secondary areas.

The delays are causing multiple concerns. Beyond the simple timeline, the wet conditions are causing practical problems. Some farmers report cloves failing to sprout, likely due to oversaturated soils or issues related to fertilizer application in the damp environment. Furthermore, prolonged storage of seed garlic in humid conditions has led to spoilage in some cases, creating additional demand and fueling the sharp rise in seed prices.

This situation has strengthened bullish sentiment in the market. Storers are holding firm, leading to a tightening of available supply. Sellers are increasingly holding back goods, anticipating further price increases. The delayed sowing has also sparked speculation about potential reductions in the new season's planted acreage and future yield, encouraging speculative buying.

Electronic trading markets have been active, with their upward movement reinforcing the bullish trend in the physical spot market.

The immediate future remains heavily dependent on the weather. Forecasts predict more rain, potentially heavy, for main producing areas. If this occurs, it could prevent planting in some areas entirely before the Frost's Descent deadline, further intensifying market anxiety. In this scenario, China garlic prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, with a high potential to break through current price levels.